Dejstvo je, da je bil nepremečninski trg zaradi izjemno ekspanzivne monetarne politike v zadnjih letih (sploh od začetka pandemije) izjemno lukrativen. Znotraj nepremičninskega trga pa še posebej segment stanovanjskih nepremičnin. Če se zakopljete v nabor empiričnih študij na področju nepremičnin in obrestnih mer, hitro ugotovite, da obrestne mere izjemno vplivajo na gibanje cen nepremičnin. V spodnjem delu sporočila sem prilepil izsek iz študije iz Velike Britanije na to temo. Če poenostavim: padanje realnih obrestnih mer = rast cen nepremičnin in rast realnih obrestnih mer = padec cen nepremičnin.
V letošnjem letu smo bili priča velikemu skoku nominalnih obrestnih mer in bistveno manjši rasti realnih obrestnih mer (nominalna obrestna mera popravljena za inflacijo). Vprašanje, ki si ga moramo zastaviti je sledeče: ali je trenutni nivo obrestnih mer zadostno visok, da bo ustavil vse inflacijske pritiske? V kolikor ni in bodo centralne banke prisiljene dvigovati nominalne obrestne mere do nivoja, da bo le-te postale tudi realno pozitivne, bo to zelo verjetno izjemno negativno vplivalo na cene nepremičnin.

več pa na:

www.economic-policy....terest.pdf


"House prices have risen substantially faster than the prices of consumer goods in most G7 countries over the past few decades. This raises major policy issues: such rises affect the distribution of wealth within and between generations, the mobility of labour and financial stability. This paper explores why such rises have happened, and what the policy implications are. The price rises have been greatest in the UK, where real house prices have risen more than three and a half times since the 1970s, substantially outpacing real income growth. Meanwhile, rental yields have been trending downwards – particularly since the mid-90s. This paper reconciles these observations by analysing the contribution of a number of drivers of house prices. It shows that the rise in house prices relative to incomes between 1985 and 2018 in the UK can be more than accounted for by the substantial decline in real risk-free interest rates over the period. This is slightly offset by net increases in home-ownership costs from higher rates of tax.
Changes in the risk-free real rate are likely to have been a major driver of changes in house prices: the model predicts that a 1% sustained increase in index-linked gilt yields from current rates could ultimately result in a fall in real house prices of around 20%"