"tako imenovane varne valute. Poleg švicarskega franka je to še posebej značilno za japonski jen"

kva?

nerečem frank, da je pa to za jen še posebej značilno pa prvič slišm.mogoče za japonce.

" Analitiki napovedujejo nadaljnjo rast tečaja jena ob nadaljevanju negotovosti na borznih trgih ."

Če mene vprašaš, se mi zdi bolj verjetno tole (če uporabim isti stavek):
Analitiki napovedujejo nadaljevanje negotovosti na borznih trgih v primeru rasti tečaja jena.

Jen ni zrasel zaradi padca borznih tecajev, ampak je bilo obratno.

Zaradi nizkih obrestnih mer japonske centralne banke je jen ena najzanimivejsih valut za izposojo. Investitorji si izposodijo jene, jih prodajo, in nato investirajo tja, kjer dobijo bistveno visji donos, kot so obresti na izposojene jene. Temu se rece "carry trade" in efektivno pomeni, da investitorji shortajo jene (si jih izposodijo, in prodajo za recimo dolarje, ki jih investirajo v, recimo (!), ameriske obveznice ali delnice).

Dvig jena pomeni pritisk na carry trade, saj je treba posojila, vzeta v jenih, tudi vrniti v jenih. Ce se med izposojo in vrnitvijo tecaj jena dvigne, zna to investitorja zaboleti, zato so (ocitno) nekateri zaceli zapirati pozicije, kar pri carry trade pomeni prodajanje investicij (zato cene na borzah dol) in kupovanje jenov. Kar je mogoce se dodatno pognalo tecaj jena visje (sanja se mi ne koliko je ta trg likviden, zato pogojno).

No, soliden komentar o jenu bi moral recimo razloziti ta mehanizem, ne pa nakladati o jenu kot o varni valuti.. WTF? Kaj ga pa dela tako posebno varnega? To, da gre gor?

crt je napisal(a):
"tako imenovane varne valute. Poleg švicarskega franka je to še posebej značilno za japonski jen" kva?

 
ne bi bil rad preveč pameten ampak dejstvo je, da mi je "prijatelj", ki se je jenu precej "posvetil" že v za četku leta ko sem ga povprašal kam se splača vlagat odsvetoval slovenijo,ameriko...in mi rekel, da mi za moje (ne)znanje priporoča, naj si preprosto kupim jene..češ, da so proti usd podcenjeni..
ah jz ga pa nism poslušu sm dal še mal več v agbn;))

x0 je napisal(a):
Jen ni zrasel zaradi padca borznih tecajev, ampak je bilo obratno. Zaradi nizkih obrestnih mer japonske centralne banke je jen ena najzanimivejsih valut za izposojo. Investitorji si izposodijo jene, jih prodajo, in nato investirajo tja, kjer dobijo bistveno visji donos, kot so obresti na izposojene jene. Temu se rece "carry trade" in efektivno pomeni, da investitorji shortajo jene (si jih izposodijo, in prodajo za recimo dolarje, ki jih investirajo v, recimo (!), ameriske obveznice ali delnice). Dvig jena pomeni pritisk na carry trade, saj je treba posojila, vzeta v jenih, tudi vrniti v jenih.

PS. Se nekaj ocen o razseznostih carry trade na podlagi izposojenih jenov:

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm? story_id=8679006


Carry trades make sense only if the investor assumes that the yen will remain weak. If it appreciated, this would increase the repayment cost of yen-borrowing and offset the interest differential. But such an assumption is dangerous when the yen is already so undervalued.

In theory, carry trades should not yield a predictable profit because the difference in interest rates between two countries should equal the rate at which investors expect the low-interest-rate currency, here the yen, to rise against the high-interest-rate one. But the carry trade turns this logic upside down by causing the yen to fall, not rise. This, in turn, lures more investors into the same strategy, amplifying the distortion.

Mr Paulson may be revealing more than he intends when he says the yen is “market-driven”: the market is chasing its own tail in defiance of the economic fundamentals. Nobody really knows how big the carry trade is. Japanese official figures show little evidence of large net lending to foreigners. For much of 2006 Japan actually had a net inflow of bond investment. Estimates based on the short-term net foreign lending of Japanese banks put the carry trade at only $200 billion.

 But hedge funds do not need to borrow yen and then buy higher-yielding currencies. Instead, the carry trade is typically done through transactions, such as currency forward swaps, that are off-balance-sheet and therefore do not show up in official statistics. A better clue comes from record net “short” positions in yen futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Estimates of the total size of the carry trade range as high as $1 trillion.

In:

http://dnaindia.com/report.asp?NewsID=1083141


All liquidity starts in Japan, the world’s largest creditor country. When rates go up here, rates go up everywhere. — Jesper Koll, chief economist for Japan, Merrill Lynch

MUMBAI: These nineteen words form the microcosm of the current global stockmarket mayhem. Jesper Koll was referring to the universal bogey called the yen carry trade. It’s a business where “trillions” of dollars are involved. “Trillions”, because nobody on earth has any idea how big a Frankenstein has been been spawned by this vast and prolonged leverage.

Which brings us to the question, what are yen carry trades? Since March 2001, Japanese interest rates have ruled at 0%. Leveraging the yen thus offered gains of about 300 basis points (“3%” in layman terms) on a platter to anybody wanting to earn. Just borrow in yen, convert the money into dollars, buy US treasuries that yield about 4.5%, pocket the difference -- after deducting expenses including about 100 basis points in hedging cost. A caveat is due here: to earn from US treasury bills, the yen/$ rate has to remain steady.

But investing in high-yielding emerging market equities like India is far more lucrative. Why have yen carry trades unravelled now? The answer lies in the unexpected surge in growth in Asia’s largest - and the world’s second-largest — economy to 4.8%% in the fourth quarter of 2006. This figure may be raised to 5.1%, Koll told Bloomberg,, because corporate investments surged 16.8%, the fastest increase since 2002, data released on Monday show. This growth forces the Bank of Japan to increase rates.

coach80 je napisal(a):


ne bi bil rad preveč pameten ampak dejstvo je, da mi je "prijatelj", ki se je jenu precej "posvetil" že v za četku leta ko sem ga povprašal kam se splača vlagat odsvetoval slovenijo,ameriko...in mi rekel, da mi za moje (ne)znanje priporoča, naj si preprosto kupim jene..češ, da so proti usd podcenjeni..
ah jz ga pa nism poslušu sm dal še mal več v agbn;))

jen je lahko kontra-postavka v portfelju na "vse" drugo v smislu, da se "vse" vroce iz njega financira. to je jasno. da pa je to "varna valuta", je tko... mal smesno.