Ekonomska teorija po domače. :) Lepo povedano, predvsem pa enostavno in pregledno.

Zakaj delnice padajo kljub tiskanju denarja? Zato, ker je vsakemu, ki zna šteti do deset in obvlada seštevanje in odštevanje jasno, da podjetja, ki kotirajo na borzi ne morejo vrniti svojih dolgov niti pod razno in so zaradi tega odvisna od dobre volje bank, da jim ta REFINANCIRAJO posojila. Kmalu pa ta podjetja ne bodo sposobna plačevati niti obresti in potem tudi refinanciranja ne bo več. In takšno podjetje ni kaj dosti vredno pa če printajo denar dan in noč. Koliko pa je sploh lahko vreden denar, ki ga tiskajo po potrebi? Bolj malo po mojem.

www.youtube.com/watc...VM16wEbZUE

www.youtube.com/watc...Fm5NSeVPog

Zanimiv članek!
Kako pa je z informacijo o obtoku denarne mase m2 - kako se pride do tega podatka po državah oz EU,ZDA,Kitajska,.. Ali so to le mesečna poročila bank, oz. bolj interna poročila finančnega sektorja?

Gospod je povedal samo resnico. Žal tako je. Lepo, da kaj takšnega tudi objavite.

Stress Tests No Sweat
By:
Peter Schiff
Wednesday, March 14, 2012

The Federal Reserve ran another "stress test" on major financial institutions and has determined that 15 of the 19 tested are safe, even in the most extreme circumstances: an unemployment rate of 13%, a 50% decline in stock prices, and a further 21% decline in housing prices. The problem is that the most important factor that will determine these banks' long-term viability was purposefully overlooked - interest rates.

In the wake of the Credit Crunch, the Fed solved the problem of resetting adjustable-rate mortgages by essentially putting the entire country on an teaser rate. Just like those homeowners who really couldn't afford their houses, our balance sheet looks fine unless you factor in higher rates. The recent stress tests assume market interest rates stay low, the federal funds rate remains near-zero, and 10-year Treasuries keep below 2%. Why are those safe assumptions? Historic rates have averaged around 6%, a level that would cause every major US bank to fail!

The truth is that higher rates are the biggest threat to the banking system and the Fed knows it. These institutions remain leveraged to the hilt and dependent upon short-term financing to stay afloat. While American families have had to stop paying off one credit card by moving the balance to another one, this behavior continues on Wall Street.

In fact, this gets to the heart of why the Fed is keeping interest rates so low. Despite endorsing phony economic data that shows the US is in recovery, the Fed knows full well that the American economy cannot move forward without its low interest-rate crutches. Ben Bernanke is trying desperately to pretend that he can keep rates low forever, which is why that variable was deliberately left out of the stress tests.

Unfortunately, rates are kept low with money-printing, and those funds are starting to bubble over into consumer prices. Bernanke acknowledged that the price of oil is rising, but said without justification the he expects the price to subside. This shows that Bernanke either doesn't know or doesn't care that the real culprit behind rising oil prices is inflation. McDonald's, meanwhile, is eliminating items from its increasingly unprofitable Dollar Menu. A dollar apparently can't even buy you a small order of fries anymore.

Unless the Fed expects us to live with steadily increasing prices for basic goods and services, it will eventually be forced to allow interest rates to rise. However, if it does so, it will quickly bankrupt the US Treasury, the banking system, and any Americans left with flexible-rate debt.

That is why the Fed feels it has no choice but to lie about inflation. If it admits inflation exists, then it may be pressured to stop it. However, if it stops the presses, it will bring on the real crash that I have been warning about for the past decade. Just as the Fed's response to the 2001 crisis led directly to the 2008 crisis, its response to 2008 is leading inevitably to either deep austerity or a currency crisis.

[For more on the crisis ahead, pre-order Peter Schiff's latest book, The Real Crash, due out in May.]

Imagine this scenario:

When the banks fail as a result of higher interest rates, the FDIC will also go bankrupt. Without access to credit, the US Treasury will not be able to bail out the insurance fund - which only contains $9.2 billion as of this writing. So, not only will shareholders and bondholders lose their money next time, but so too will depositors!

Americans are much less self-sufficient than they were in the Great Depression. One only needs to look at Greece to see how a service-based economy deals with this kind of economic collapse - crime, riots, vandalism, and strikes.

There are a few countermeasures left in the government's arsenal, including selling the nation's gold, but there comes a point at which the charade can go on no longer. The sharply widening current account deficit shows that we are becoming even more dependent on imports that we cannot afford. Just as homeowners had a good run pulling equity from their overvalued properties, Washington and Wall Street will soon find the music turned off. And there will be no one there to help them clean up the mess left behind.

I propose a new rule of thumb: until true economic growth resumes in the distant future, the fed funds rate should also be used as the "Federal Reserve credibility rate." We'll use a scale of 0-20, which is approximately how high rates went under Paul Volcker to restore confidence in the dollar. So, until the end of this crisis, if the fed funds rate is near-zero, all the Fed's statements, forecasts, and stress tests should be given near-zero credibility. When rates rise to 5%, the Fed's words can be assumed to be ¼ credible. When they hit 20%, that would be a Fed whose words you could take to the bank - if you can still find one.

Ali naj sedaj borzni vlagatelj delnice proda in kupi obveznice?

Seveda! Delnice se prodaja, ko so poceni, in kupuje, ko so drage.
Tako se to pri nas dela. :-)

Pa kaj ta umotvor sploh piše v financah?????????????????????????????

Zgodovina je vedno pokazala kako mali ljudje , ki spremljajo krdelo, izgubljajo.In sedaj bo zopet isto.

G. Turkovič je pri meni že davno izgubil vso legitimnost in njegovi komentarji niso popolnoma nič novega, če vprašam, kako kaj france in deutche telekom??
Logično, da so se povečini vse finančne institucije, ki upravljajo z hedge skladi in trgujejo na borznih parketih z njih umaknili, ostali so mali in manjši špekulanti.
Vendar zgodovina se ponavlja in dejstvo je, da mali vlagatelji ne bodo dvignili indexov, ko bodo banke, inv. hiše začele udejstvovati bo explozija, slej ko prej se bo to zgodilo, kot vedno do sedaj, pohlep je prevelik(tistih seveda, ki ne morejo tiskat denarja:) :))Na borzi se je potrebno obnašati kot na smučišču, "gor-dol, gor-dol".Utopija je misliti, da bo borza samo rasla in tudi samo padala.

kako? capital destruction at work:

www.google.com/finan...=NASDAQ:FB

Vsak dan izpuhti miljarda ali dve v zrak samo iz FB. To pomeni, da ce vsak dan FED natisne dve miljardi, ga ze FB offseta s podobno mocnim "kurjenjem" kapitala.

Sicer pa se se enkrat, razlaga, kako poteka unicevanje kapitala:

forum.finance.si/?m=...le&replies

Iz tvojega linka:

* Opomba: "blendane grmblajsne" so nek predmet, ki ga nihce ne rabi, noben ni se nikoli slisal za njega, noben ga nikoli ni rabil, in sploh ni izgledov, da bi ga kdo kadarkoli potreboval.


- Torej Igor Bavčar...