Se vecji problem je, da tudi ce na koncu rezultati za december ne bodo tako slabi, da bi uradno porinili nemcijo v uradno recesijo, je pac malo tezko pricakovati da bo v novo leto katerakoli od teh drzav vstopila z neko omembe vredno rast. Ce je bila v Q3 v nemciji recesija, v Q4 pa skoraj recesija, potem je za 2019 zelo tezko napovedati kaj drugega kot stagnacijo in ful veseli bomo lahko ce ne bo prislo do fullblown recesije. Za kakrsnokoli omembe vredno rast bi rabili tako hud rainbows&unicorns dogodek, kot bi bil recimo najprej odlog brexita, potem pa zmaga UK remainerjev 70:30 na novem referendumu... kar se ne bo zgodilo.

Kot kaže, sta bili objektivno merjeno obe ne le na robu, ampak tudi čez rob:

www.businessinsider....-q4-2019-1
Germany may have avoided recession in Q4 by just 0.1% because the quarter was one day longer than the previous period
(...)
Today's headline is not adjusted for the fact that 2018 had one more working day than 2017, so we probably have to assume that the fully adjusted growth estimate would have been closer to 1.4% than 1.5%. That suggests GDP was either flat, or fell by 0.1% in Q4

www.ft.com/content/4...351a53f1c3
In its most recent quarterly economic bulletin published today, the Bank of Italy said that a sharp slowdown in the eurozone’s third-largest economy at the end of last year, as well as a cut back in investment by companies, had forced it to revise down its growth forecasts.
“The available cyclical indicators point to a possible decline in economic activity in the last three months of the year after the interruption in growth in the third quarter,” the Bank of Italy said.
The Italian economy contracted by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, meaning that if the Bank of Italy’s forecasts are correct then the economy will have shrunk for two consecutive quarters.
The Bank also said it had lowered its growth forecast for the Italian economy in 2019 to 0.6 per cent and 0.9 per cent for 2020, down from previous estimates of 1 per cent for this year and 1.1 per cent for next year.

Si mor'š misl't:

BREAKING: Italy Falls Into Recession as Output Shrinks
www.bloomberg.com/ne...n-forecast

Osebno vedno težje dojamem, kako naj bi Nemčija v 2018Q4 uprizorila nenegativno spremembo BDP. Čisto sveže: www.destatis.de/EN/P...2_421.html

December 2018 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing
-1.6% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-7.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

November 2018 (revised): new orders in manufacturing
-0.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

Te številke nikakor ne gredo skupaj z aktualnimi ocenami, da je nemški BDP v 2018Q4 stagniral ...