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bc123a sporočil: 46.856
[#2753013] 15.01.19 18:43
Odgovori   +    10
Se vecji problem je, da tudi ce na koncu rezultati za december ne bodo tako slabi, da bi uradno porinili nemcijo v uradno recesijo, je pac malo tezko pricakovati da bo v novo leto katerakoli od teh drzav vstopila z neko omembe vredno rast. Ce je bila v Q3 v nemciji recesija, v Q4 pa skoraj recesija, potem je za 2019 zelo tezko napovedati kaj drugega kot stagnacijo in ful veseli bomo lahko ce ne bo prislo do fullblown recesije. Za kakrsnokoli omembe vredno rast bi rabili tako hud rainbows&unicorns dogodek, kot bi bil recimo najprej odlog brexita, potem pa zmaga UK remainerjev 70:30 na novem referendumu... kar se ne bo zgodilo.
TadejK sporočil: 7.856
[#2753628] 18.01.19 18:07
Odgovori   +    0
Kot kaže, sta bili objektivno merjeno obe ne le na robu, ampak tudi čez rob:
www.businessinsider....-q4-2019-1
Germany may have avoided recession in Q4 by just 0.1% because the quarter was one day longer than the previous period
(...)
Today's headline is not adjusted for the fact that 2018 had one more working day than 2017, so we probably have to assume that the fully adjusted growth estimate would have been closer to 1.4% than 1.5%. That suggests GDP was either flat, or fell by 0.1% in Q4
www.ft.com/content/4...351a53f1c3
In its most recent quarterly economic bulletin published today, the Bank of Italy said that a sharp slowdown in the eurozone’s third-largest economy at the end of last year, as well as a cut back in investment by companies, had forced it to revise down its growth forecasts.
“The available cyclical indicators point to a possible decline in economic activity in the last three months of the year after the interruption in growth in the third quarter,” the Bank of Italy said.
The Italian economy contracted by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, meaning that if the Bank of Italy’s forecasts are correct then the economy will have shrunk for two consecutive quarters.
The Bank also said it had lowered its growth forecast for the Italian economy in 2019 to 0.6 per cent and 0.9 per cent for 2020, down from previous estimates of 1 per cent for this year and 1.1 per cent for next year.
crt sporočil: 20.967
[#2753630] 18.01.19 18:12 · odgovor na: TadejK (#2753628)
Odgovori   +    1
Europe has made a political decision to go into recession

www.businessinsider....ion-2019-1
TadejK sporočil: 7.856
[#2755787] 31.01.19 11:17
Odgovori   +    0
Si mor'š misl't:

BREAKING: Italy Falls Into Recession as Output Shrinks
www.bloomberg.com/ne...n-forecast
crt sporočil: 20.967
[#2755790] 31.01.19 11:22 · odgovor na: TadejK (#2755787)
Odgovori   +    0
[TadejK]
Si mor'š misl't:

BREAKING: Italy Falls Into Recession as Output Shrinks
www.bloomberg.com/ne...n-forecast
nemcija pa bo po moje sfurala uradno 0.00, ker se sicer ecb znajde v nerodnem polozaju, da je ravno s fanfarami kao nehala dajati umetno dihanje, pa bi morala takoj spet...
TadejK sporočil: 7.856
[#2755791] 31.01.19 11:27 · odgovor na: crt (#2755790)
Odgovori   +    1
[crt]
> [TadejK]
> Si mor'š misl't:
>
> BREAKING: Italy Falls Into Recession as Output Shrinks
> www.bloomberg.com/ne...n-forecast

nemcija pa bo po moje sfurala uradno 0.00, ker se sicer ecb znajde v nerodnem polozaju, da je ravno s fanfarami kao nehala dajati umetno dihanje, pa bi morala takoj spet...
Po emisijskih škandalih bi bilo na ta pomislek res naivno odgovoriti z "Ah, Nemci pa ja ne bi šli potvarjat številk!"
crt sporočil: 20.967
[#2755792] 31.01.19 11:28 · odgovor na: TadejK (#2755791)
Odgovori   +    0
[TadejK]
> [crt]
> > [TadejK]
> > Si mor'š misl't:
> >
> > BREAKING: Italy Falls Into Recession as Output Shrinks
> > www.bloomberg.com/ne...n-forecast
>
> nemcija pa bo po moje sfurala uradno 0.00, ker se sicer ecb znajde v nerodnem polozaju, da je ravno s fanfarami kao nehala dajati umetno dihanje, pa bi morala takoj spet...

Po emisijskih škandalih bi bilo na ta pomislek res naivno odgovoriti z "Ah, Nemci pa ja ne bi šli potvarjat številk!"
ce se prav spomnim, je tudi ze bilo najdeno operativno masilo, mislim, da gre za en koledarski dan or something.
TadejK sporočil: 7.856
[#2755794] 31.01.19 11:32 · odgovor na: crt (#2755792)
Odgovori   +    0
Zadnja sprememba: TadejK 31.01.2019 11:33
[crt]
> [TadejK]
> > [crt]
> > > [TadejK]
> > > Si mor'š misl't:
> > >
> > > BREAKING: Italy Falls Into Recession as Output Shrinks
> > > www.bloomberg.com/ne...n-forecast
> >
> > nemcija pa bo po moje sfurala uradno 0.00, ker se sicer ecb znajde v nerodnem polozaju, da je ravno s fanfarami kao nehala dajati umetno dihanje, pa bi morala takoj spet...
>
> Po emisijskih škandalih bi bilo na ta pomislek res naivno odgovoriti z "Ah, Nemci pa ja ne bi šli potvarjat številk!"

ce se prav spomnim, je tudi ze bilo najdeno operativno masilo, mislim, da gre za en koledarski dan or something.
Ja, tako so "pogasili" za prvo silo. Ampak podatki, po katerih se na koncu presoja, ali je recesija, so QoQ season and calendar adjusted, in tudi te bo moral Destatis objaviti. Zaenkrat je najavljeno za 14. februar.
crt sporočil: 20.967
[#2755795] 31.01.19 11:34 · odgovor na: TadejK (#2755794)
Odgovori   +    0
Zadnja sprememba: crt 31.01.2019 11:34
kasneje se naredi revizija starega podatka, pa je win win, podatki ok, ecb pridobila takticni cas :)
TadejK sporočil: 7.856
[#2756803] 06.02.19 08:15
Odgovori   +    1
Osebno vedno težje dojamem, kako naj bi Nemčija v 2018Q4 uprizorila nenegativno spremembo BDP. Čisto sveže: www.destatis.de/EN/P...2_421.html
December 2018 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing
-1.6% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-7.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

November 2018 (revised): new orders in manufacturing
-0.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
Te številke nikakor ne gredo skupaj z aktualnimi ocenami, da je nemški BDP v 2018Q4 stagniral ...
TadejK sporočil: 7.856
[#2756981] 07.02.19 08:26 · odgovor na: TadejK (#2756803)
Odgovori   +    3
[TadejK]
Osebno vedno težje dojamem, kako naj bi Nemčija v 2018Q4 uprizorila nenegativno spremembo BDP. Čisto sveže: www.destatis.de/EN/P...2_421.html

December 2018 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing
-1.6% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-7.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

November 2018 (revised): new orders in manufacturing
-0.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

Te številke nikakor ne gredo skupaj z aktualnimi ocenami, da je nemški BDP v 2018Q4 stagniral ...
In sveže danes: www.destatis.de/EN/P...4_421.html

Production in December 2018: -0.4% seasonally adjusted on the previous month
December 2018 (provisional): production in industry
-0.4% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.9% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

November 2018 (revised): production in industry
-1.3% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-4.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

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