Izbrani forum: Borza
Izbrana tema: KRKG - Krka
Prikaz samo enega sporočila - znotraj teme...
sporočil: 1.470
Rexiboy, zdaj bo pa počasi dovolj bashanja. Pri približno 110m EUR
dobička Krke, to predstavlja približno 10 odstotno profitno maržo.
Sicer se marža zmanjšuje, a je še vedno solidna. Če za primerjavo
vzamemo nemško Stado (za katero si verjetno slišal, da se zanimajo
trije private equity skladi), Stada nikoli ni imela profitne marže
niti blizu Krkini. Stada plačuje za tretjino nižje relativne
dividende (dividendni donos), vrednotenje pa je v povprečju za 100
odstotkov višje. Samo toliko, da se stvari postavijo v kontekst.
Analitiki napovedujejo za 2017 sledečo višino dobička:
- Erste 138,9 (znižanje z 180,90)
- Jefferies 142m (predhodno 140,40)
- Alta 123,74 (prej 123,7)
- Intercapital 171 (prej 170,93)
Mediana pričakovanega dobička za leto 2017 je približno 20 % višja od pričakovanega nivoja dobička v letu 2016, ki ga je trg pri tej ceni že "prebavil"
Primerljive valuacije
Krka
- EV/S 1,31
- EV/EBITDA 5,61
- DivY 5,3 %
Richter
-EV/S 2,76
- EV/EBITDA 11,5
- DivY 1,3 %
Stada
- EV/S 2,21
- EV/EBITDA 11,51
- DivY 1,5 %
Aspen Pharma
- EV/S 3,52
- EV/EBITDA 12,07
- DivY 1,2 %
Hikma
- EV/S 3,08
- EV/EBITDA 12,05
- DivY 1,2 %
Zelo na hitro pripravljeni zgornji kazalniki ti lahko pokažejo, da je Krka "pol" cenejša od najbližjih konkurentov. Torej boš zdaj postregel s pojasnilom, da je to upravičeno, ker se pri Krki dogaja nekaj, kar se pri njeni konkurenci ne dogaja.
Stada Bid War Unfolds as Third Suitor Offers $3.84 Billion
2017-02-17 13:42:08.342 GMT
By Sarah Syed, Manuel Baigorri, Naomi Kresge and Aaron
Kirchfeld
(Bloomberg) -- Stada Arzneimittel AG is weighing offers as
a bidding war for one of the last remaining generic-drug
businesses of its size in Germany and Russia begins to unfold.
The company said Thursday it received interest from a third
firm that made a non-binding offer of 58 euros a share, or about
3.61 billion euros ($3.84 billion). That bidder is Bain Capital,
people familiar with the matter said. Manager Magazin first
reported the name.
The offer is two euros per share more than Cinven Ltd.’s
bid announced earlier this week. Advent International Corp. is
also interested in the Bad Vilbel, Germany-based drugmaker, and
may make an offer between 56 euros and 60 euros a share as early
as next week, people said. Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC
Pte has joined Advent as a co-investor, separate people said
Friday, asking not to be identified because the deliberations
are private.
Representatives for Bain and Advent declined to comment,
while Stada and GIC didn’t immediately respond.
Other private equity firms including CVC Capital Partners
and Permira are closely monitoring the situation as they
consider whether to bid individually or team up, people familiar
with the plans had said. The business may also attract interest
from drugmakers including Poland’s Polpharma SA, they said.
Shareholder Structure
An unusual shareholder structure and entrenched management
kept Stada independent for years as erstwhile competitors such
as Ratiopharm were bought out by bigger market players. Then
last year, activist investor Active Ownership Capital Sarl
successfully campaigned to overthrow a rule it said gave Stada’s
board undue influence over ownership of the company. Speculation
about takeover interest has propelled the German company’s
shares up more than 80 percent in the last 12 months.
The price could climb as high as 63 euros a share in the
context of a bidding war, Thomas Maul, a Frankfurt-based analyst
with DZ Bank AG, wrote in a note to investors. However, “fair
value” for the company is about 57.50 euros, Maul estimated.
Stada shares rose to the highest level since 1998 on
Friday, climbing as much as 2.6 percent. The stock was 1.9
percent higher at 57.30 euros as of 2:38 p.m. in Frankfurt.
Advent oversees $42 billion in assets and has expertise
owning generic drugmakers, including investments in Argentina’s
Fada Pharma and Romania’s Terapia as well as Colombian specialty
pharmaceutical company Grupo Biotoscana.
Stada’s management is in favor of exploring a sale, the
people said. The supervisory board may be becoming more open to
the idea, though it remains cautious about a takeover, the
people said. Executives are likely to seek some job, investment
and site guarantees, they said.
The supervisory board established a five-member committee
lead by its Chairman Ferdinand Oetker to help executives
“protect the interests of the company as efficiently as
possible” and ensure a “close exchange of information,” the
company said in a separate statement earlier on Thursday.
- Erste 138,9 (znižanje z 180,90)
- Jefferies 142m (predhodno 140,40)
- Alta 123,74 (prej 123,7)
- Intercapital 171 (prej 170,93)
Mediana pričakovanega dobička za leto 2017 je približno 20 % višja od pričakovanega nivoja dobička v letu 2016, ki ga je trg pri tej ceni že "prebavil"
Primerljive valuacije
Krka
- EV/S 1,31
- EV/EBITDA 5,61
- DivY 5,3 %
Richter
-EV/S 2,76
- EV/EBITDA 11,5
- DivY 1,3 %
Stada
- EV/S 2,21
- EV/EBITDA 11,51
- DivY 1,5 %
Aspen Pharma
- EV/S 3,52
- EV/EBITDA 12,07
- DivY 1,2 %
Hikma
- EV/S 3,08
- EV/EBITDA 12,05
- DivY 1,2 %
Zelo na hitro pripravljeni zgornji kazalniki ti lahko pokažejo, da je Krka "pol" cenejša od najbližjih konkurentov. Torej boš zdaj postregel s pojasnilom, da je to upravičeno, ker se pri Krki dogaja nekaj, kar se pri njeni konkurenci ne dogaja.
Stada Bid War Unfolds as Third Suitor Offers $3.84 Billion
2017-02-17 13:42:08.342 GMT
By Sarah Syed, Manuel Baigorri, Naomi Kresge and Aaron
Kirchfeld
(Bloomberg) -- Stada Arzneimittel AG is weighing offers as
a bidding war for one of the last remaining generic-drug
businesses of its size in Germany and Russia begins to unfold.
The company said Thursday it received interest from a third
firm that made a non-binding offer of 58 euros a share, or about
3.61 billion euros ($3.84 billion). That bidder is Bain Capital,
people familiar with the matter said. Manager Magazin first
reported the name.
The offer is two euros per share more than Cinven Ltd.’s
bid announced earlier this week. Advent International Corp. is
also interested in the Bad Vilbel, Germany-based drugmaker, and
may make an offer between 56 euros and 60 euros a share as early
as next week, people said. Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC
Pte has joined Advent as a co-investor, separate people said
Friday, asking not to be identified because the deliberations
are private.
Representatives for Bain and Advent declined to comment,
while Stada and GIC didn’t immediately respond.
Other private equity firms including CVC Capital Partners
and Permira are closely monitoring the situation as they
consider whether to bid individually or team up, people familiar
with the plans had said. The business may also attract interest
from drugmakers including Poland’s Polpharma SA, they said.
Shareholder Structure
An unusual shareholder structure and entrenched management
kept Stada independent for years as erstwhile competitors such
as Ratiopharm were bought out by bigger market players. Then
last year, activist investor Active Ownership Capital Sarl
successfully campaigned to overthrow a rule it said gave Stada’s
board undue influence over ownership of the company. Speculation
about takeover interest has propelled the German company’s
shares up more than 80 percent in the last 12 months.
The price could climb as high as 63 euros a share in the
context of a bidding war, Thomas Maul, a Frankfurt-based analyst
with DZ Bank AG, wrote in a note to investors. However, “fair
value” for the company is about 57.50 euros, Maul estimated.
Stada shares rose to the highest level since 1998 on
Friday, climbing as much as 2.6 percent. The stock was 1.9
percent higher at 57.30 euros as of 2:38 p.m. in Frankfurt.
Advent oversees $42 billion in assets and has expertise
owning generic drugmakers, including investments in Argentina’s
Fada Pharma and Romania’s Terapia as well as Colombian specialty
pharmaceutical company Grupo Biotoscana.
Stada’s management is in favor of exploring a sale, the
people said. The supervisory board may be becoming more open to
the idea, though it remains cautious about a takeover, the
people said. Executives are likely to seek some job, investment
and site guarantees, they said.
The supervisory board established a five-member committee
lead by its Chairman Ferdinand Oetker to help executives
“protect the interests of the company as efficiently as
possible” and ensure a “close exchange of information,” the
company said in a separate statement earlier on Thursday.
Neposredni odgovori na sporočilo št. 2641705
Strani: 1
sporočil: 175
Pop, hvala lepa za te primerjave oz. kazalce. Upam tudi, da bo
sedaj rexi nehal z večnim bevskanjem na Krko. Je bil že prav
nadležen.
Lp
Lp
sporočil: 6.775
Zadnja sprememba: tilenrexi 22.02.2017 10:40
[poopmezajebava]Razumem, kar si napisal, še vedno pa ne vem, zakaj nisi odgovoril? Sploh ni problem trenutno vrednotenje, problem je negotovost in management, ki ne zna točno povedati, kaj lahko nekdo pričakuje, ki danes kupi delnice. Pričakuje lahko dividendo, to pa je tudi vse in to nikakor ni dovolj.
Samo toliko, da se stvari postavijo v kontekst. Analitiki napovedujejo za 2017 sledečo višino dobička:
- Erste 138,9 (znižanje z 180,90)
- Jefferies 142m (predhodno 140,40)
- Alta 123,74 (prej 123,7)
- Intercapital 171 (prej 170,93)
Mediana pričakovanega dobička za leto 2017 je približno 20 % višja od pričakovanega nivoja dobička v letu 2016, ki ga je trg pri tej ceni že "prebavil"
Si prepričan, da lahko Krka v 2017 doseže dobiček v višini 140 milijonov EUR? Jaz mislim, da ne in tukaj je problem.
Znaš ti napisati, kak je guidance za 2017?
Mogoče lahko napišeš, kdo od zgoraj omenjenih ima 40% nižji dobiček kot pred petimi leti ali nižje prihodke kot pred petimi leti?
Misliš, da je lahko mediana napovedanih dobičkov za 2017 presežena in kaj meniš, kaj se bo zgodilo, če ne bo?
Problem je rast, ki je ni, ne vrednotenje. Dokler bodo prihodki in dobiček upadali, omembe vredne rasti delnice NE BO.
sporočil: 6.775
Zadnja sprememba: tilenrexi 02.03.2017 17:53
22.02.17 08:48_________
[poopmezajebava]
Samo toliko, da se stvari postavijo v kontekst. Analitiki napovedujejo za 2017 sledečo višino dobička:
- Erste 138,9 (znižanje z 180,90)
- Jefferies 142m (predhodno 140,40)
- Alta 123,74 (prej 123,7)
- Intercapital 171 (prej 170,93)
Mediana pričakovanega dobička za leto 2017 je približno 20 % višja od pričakovanega nivoja dobička v letu 2016, ki ga je trg pri tej ceni že "prebavil"
No, kakšen je danes tvoj komentar? Predvidoma večji dobiček, kako ti razumeš tak guidance na 108,5 mio EUR podlage? 20% gor? Resno?
Kaj pričakuješ, da bodo naredili Erste, Jefferies, Intercapital ob tem mencanju vodstva in nejasnih načrtih?
Strani: 1