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bc123a sporočil: 48.253
[Glavni forum] Tema: Ta noč ni bila Trumpov dan
[#2618507] 27.09.16 15:30 · odgovor na: tstih (#2618499)
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Zadnja sprememba: bc123a 27.09.2016 15:31
[tstih]
Debate nisem gledal in zato ne morem razglasiti zmagovalca. Bi pa opozoril da -za razliko od mene- NYT in CNN ponavadi ne potrebujeta debate, da bi razglasila kdo je zmagal. In da si z navajanjem le teh dveh virov nizate verodostojnost. Zal neodvisne politicne analitike ni in je tudi nikoli ni bilo. Vedno je bila fiktiven konstrukt za omejevanje tocno dolocenih stalisc oz. za znameniti "pluralizem znotraj partije". NYT in CNN so demokrati z rodovnikom in vedno povejo le pol resnice. To prodajati za novinarstvo ali dejstva je zgreseno.
Zdaj, Simoni priznam, da ima jajca. Ali pa zmotno misli, da je ne bomo zive pozrli, ce bo na koncu zmagal Trump, vi pa tule brez kancka dvoma vnaprej razglasate da Hillary dominira.
Post-debate surveys like CNN’s aren’t always popular with poll mavens, in part because the universe of poll-watchers may not match the electorate overall. The voters in CNN’s poll were Democratic-leaning by a net of 15 percentage points, for instance, a considerably wider advantage than Democrats are likely to enjoy on Election Day.

Pravi Nate Silver:

fivethirtyeight.com/...the-polls/

in

As a warning, you should give the debate five to seven days to be fully reflected in FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts. It will take a couple of days before reliable, post-debate polls are released, and then another couple of days before the model recognizes them to be part of a trend instead of potential outliers.

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