Izbrani forum: Glavni forum

Izbrana tema: članek Zimbabve: dolar je mrtev, naj živi dolar!

Prikaz samo enega sporočila - znotraj teme...

bc123a sporočil: 48.253
Tadej, moje znanje o Zimbabwejski inflaciji se res napada iz Wikipedije, a mislim da bi bilo zelo poucno, ce bi vkljucil tudi mehanizem, kako je prislo do tako strahovite hiperinflacije. Da ne bo spet clanek pricakan s komentarji tipa "lastna valuta pomeni hiperinflacijo".

Zimbabwe je solski primer zafuranega, populisticno-socialisticnega gospodarstva, kjer je vlada narocala tiskanje valute neposredno za to, da bi takoj z sveze natisnjeno valuto kupila tuje valute in tako naredila denar iz nic. Seveda so sledili primitivni logiki, da bodo natisnili denar, inflacijo pa krotili z drzavnim nadzorom cen. Vse to je baje osebno ukazal Mugabe, ki ne samo da je diktator ampak je tudi ekonomsko polpismen idiot. To vajo so ponovili nekajkrat, seveda s pricakovanim rezultatom.

Wikipedia

On 16 February 2006, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, Gideon Gono, announced that the government had printed ZW$20.5 trillion in order to buy foreign currency to pay off IMF arrears. In early May 2006, Zimbabwe's government announced that they would produce another ZW$60 trillion. The additional currency was required to finance the recent 300% salary increase for soldiers and policemen and 200% increase for other civil servants. The money was not budgeted for the current fiscal year, and the government did not say where it would come from. On 29 May, Reserve Bank officials told IRIN that plans to print about ZW$60 trillion (about US$592.9 million at official rates) were briefly delayed after the government failed to secure foreign currency to buy ink and special paper for printing money.

In late August 2006, it was reported that about ZW$10 trillion old dollars (22% of the money supply) had not been exchanged for revalued dollars. These bearer cheques were demonetised.

On 27 June 2007, it was announced that central bank governor Gideon Gono had been ordered by President Robert Mugabe to print an additional Z$1 trillion to cater for civil servants' and soldiers' salaries that were hiked by 600% and 900% respectively.

On 28 July 2007, it was reported that Mugabe said that Zimbabwe would go on printing money if there was not enough for underfunded municipal projects.

(komentar bc123a: tole zgoraj kaze zblojeno logiko Mugabeja)

On 30 August 2007, it was reported that an additional ZW$3 trillion had been printed to pay for 500,000 scotch carts and 800,000 ox-drawn ploughs plus an unspecified number of cattle.

...

On 24 November 2007, it was reported that money supply was now $58 trillion revalued Zimbabwean dollars (ZWD)[60] ($41 million US at parallel rates). However, Zimbabwe banks could only account for Z$1–2 trillion of those dollars, meaning that members of the public were holding Z$56–57 trillion in cash.

On 4 January 2008, it was reported that money supply had been increased by Z$33 trillion to Z$100 trillion[61] revalued Zimbabwean dollars (ZWD).[62] Further, the demonetisation of the Z$200,000 bearer cheques was put on hold, thus increasing the money supply.

On 21 January 2008, it was reported, by Gideon Gono, that the money supply had been increased to Z$170 trillion since the middle of December. Further, Gono expected it to reach $800 trillion by 28 January 2008.


Skratka, makroekonomsko gledano je (ce se ne motim) vlada poleg divjega povecanja kolicine denarja v obtoku s svojimi "akcijami tiskanja" dejansko pospesila hitrost denarja (velocity of money) na totalno bolani, v normalnem svetu ze dolgo mrtvi logiki, da se lahko denar naprinta iz lufta, potem se pa s prisilo drzi cene dol. Poceli so tocno to, kar je pocela ranjka Juga, samo v precej vecjem obsegu.

In ce se vrnemo k Grciji, in ostalim potencialnim izstopnicam iz evro kluba. Lastna valuta se ne pomeni podivjane inflacije. Pomeni verjetno devalvacijo, ki pa je v teh drzavah (se posebej grciji) nujno potrebna za konkuriranje nemciji.

Paradoksalno, ceprav bo izstop iz evrocone zakuhala Syriza, je ona sama tudi najvecja groznja v primeru nove drahme: ravno podivjani populisticni levicarji so pripravljeni tiskati denar, se posebej "ta mladi", ki nimajo zgodovinskih izkusenj in se se vedno zgledujejo po Marxu, Leninu in Che Guevari.

Tudi za slovenijo velja, da se ni treba bati da bi liki kot je Mencinger izvedli Zimbabwe, ker je povezava med kolicino denarja, hitrostjo denarja in inflacijo jasna ze vsakemu tretjerazrednemu ekonomistu.

Se je pa bati Lukeca in njegove ZL, kajti za te se je bati da bi komot pograbili Mugabejewsko logiko "printam denar in prepovem dvige cen".

In ne, zimbabwejska hiperinflacija nima cisto nobene sorodnosti z slovenskim drsecim tecajem tolarja pred vkljucitvijo v evropski sistem valutnih tecajev, ker gre za dve popolnoma razlicni stvari.

Ok, malo zmedeno sem napisal, ampak saj je jasno, kaj sem hotel povedati.

Vse ocene tega sporočila:

Gostje ne morejo pregledovati ocen