Izbrani forum: Borza
Izbrana tema: KRKG - Krka
Prikaz samo enega sporočila - znotraj teme...
sporočil: 6.775
Zadnja sprememba: tilenrexi 02.03.2017 17:53
22.02.17 08:48_________
[poopmezajebava]
Samo toliko, da se stvari postavijo v kontekst. Analitiki napovedujejo za 2017 sledečo višino dobička:
- Erste 138,9 (znižanje z 180,90)
- Jefferies 142m (predhodno 140,40)
- Alta 123,74 (prej 123,7)
- Intercapital 171 (prej 170,93)
Mediana pričakovanega dobička za leto 2017 je približno 20 % višja od pričakovanega nivoja dobička v letu 2016, ki ga je trg pri tej ceni že "prebavil"
No, kakšen je danes tvoj komentar? Predvidoma večji dobiček, kako ti razumeš tak guidance na 108,5 mio EUR podlage? 20% gor? Resno?
Kaj pričakuješ, da bodo naredili Erste, Jefferies, Intercapital ob tem mencanju vodstva in nejasnih načrtih?
Neposredni odgovori na sporočilo št. 2642905
Strani: 1
sporočil: 1.470
Rexiboy, ne vem, nisem analitik. Na njihovem mestu bi moral imeti
zelo dobre argumente, da bi pustil taka pričakovanja kot sem ti jih
predhodno zgolj prepisal :)
Ti pa sporočim, ko/če se kaj spremeni. Trenutno ti lahko pošljem le stockupdate s strani Intercapital, da vidiš, kako razmišljajo. (beri spodaj).
Ne vem, če se midva povsem prav razumeva - po mojem dojemanju stvari, govoriva o precej podobnih zadevah, marsikaj podobnega naju moti (npr. - forum.finance.si/?m=...698&single sem že 30.6. opozarjal na pomanjkanje strategije).
Razlikujeva pa se (močno) pri tem, da jaz govorim o pričakovanjih in trenutni ceni blaga (delnici Krke), ti pa govoriš o trendu. Moja teza, ki jo je delno, sicer z zelo nizkim prometom, danes po objavi rezultatov potrdil trg, je bila, da je ta zblodela in nedopustna nedovršenost strategije Krke in (katastrofalni) rezultati za 2016 že terjala svoj davek. Da je temu (delno) tako, ti kažejo tudi vsi svežnji in večje transakcije v zadnjih dveh tednih.
Bo pa Colarič moral močno zavihati rokave. Glede na res šibek outlook za 2017 (kje je tu margin of error, v primeru, če rubelj npr ne bo več v celem letu v povprečju tam, kjer je leto začel), verjetno višanje dividende in (novi) triletni sharebuyback ne bosta dovolj za večji obrat sentimenta. Bo treba pokazati nekaj napredka na stroških in predvsem si naliti čistega vina glede silnega capexa, ki ga gospod veliki manager brez kakršnegakoli razmisleka namenja iz leta v leto, pri čemer delničarji nimamo nič od tega, oz čedalje manj. Podobno tudi kadrovska politika, ki v razmeru upada poslovanja ne more več igrati vloge socialnega korektiva regije.
Verjetno pa ni tako naiven kot šaleški šlagerpjevač, ki je mislil, da je nedotakljiv, potem pa mu je pasiva spolzela iz rok in kar naenkrat se trese za svoj obstoj? Tudi Stada, ki sem ti jo že omenjal, je polna poison pill varovalk, a so vseeno videli, da ko se enkrat sproži plaz, da ga ni več tako enostavno zaustaviti.
Še komentar IC:
In attachment we introduce the 'IC Company Note - Krka Group FY 2016 ':
"Negative Q3 trends continued in the last quarter of the year"
In spite of the fact that sales volume surged by 11% compared to 2015, Krka Group’s financial statements for 2016 show rather flattish revenues in the amount of EUR 1,174.4m (+1%). As we have already seen in the previous quarters of the year, the top line was for the most part pressured by an erosion of average prices of products in most markets as well as by negative movements of certain exchange rates. The figures are in line with the group’s guidance from Nov 2016. East Europe, which traditionally accounts for almost 30% of total sales, posted a 1% growth to the amount of EUR 332.3m, but largely pressured by exchange rate. For instance, Russia (the largest and key individual market) posted rouble denominated sales revenues up 13%. The biggest laggard in the course of the year was West Europe with the decline of EUR 24m or 8% YoY due to severe price erosion, but this was mitigated by an improved performance in other regions.
Each category of operating expenses increased, whereby costs of goods skyrocketed by 12% compared to 2015, resulting in gross margin down by 3.6 p.p. to 57.5%. Besides significant increase of the production volume, costs of goods sold are also influenced by changes in the inventories of work in progress and finished products. Just to note, the second half of the year shows an increase in COGS of as much as 20%, mostly coming from regulatory requirements which resulted in higher costs of semi-products. The good news is that the group is already preparing innovative cost reduction initiatives in order to improve operating efficiency in 2017.
Taking into account all these aggravating factors, EBITDA decreased by 25.6% YoY to EUR 228.2m, pushing margin below 20%. We would like to point out that other operating income went down by EUR 18.7m or 70% YoY in 2016, as in the previous year the group booked EUR 20.0m of reversed provisions for lawsuits. Going down the P&L, we see a negative net financial result of EUR 6.1m, but significantly improved compared to 2015 (EUR -18.7m), mostly due to hedging in periods of increased volatility. On the bottom line Krka Group recorded EUR 108.5m of net profit for the period, a decrease of 31.4% YoY, with ROE falling down to a single-digit figure of 7.6%.
Krka Group announced some initial guidance for 2017 – sales revenues are planned in the amount of roughly EUR 1.22bn, while the bottom line is expected to exceed the 2016 profit. Last but not least, Krka Group has announced roughly EUR 174m of investments in 2017 (up by a third on 2016). In addition to organic growth, they will intensify acquisition and joint venture activities, carefully selected according to several criteria (geography, deal value, profitability). The discrepancy between sales value and volume is likely to be narrowed in 2016.
During the conference call the management stated Krka remains committed to their strategic orientation of increasing dividend payments. Despite the lower bottom line, the company’s balance sheet is strong enough and allows higher pay-outs even if it means slightly increasing leverage. Specific details on the dividend proposal will be published in May in the AGM invitation.
Until we factor in the changes in Krka Group’s business performance, we keep our target price under review.
Ti pa sporočim, ko/če se kaj spremeni. Trenutno ti lahko pošljem le stockupdate s strani Intercapital, da vidiš, kako razmišljajo. (beri spodaj).
Ne vem, če se midva povsem prav razumeva - po mojem dojemanju stvari, govoriva o precej podobnih zadevah, marsikaj podobnega naju moti (npr. - forum.finance.si/?m=...698&single sem že 30.6. opozarjal na pomanjkanje strategije).
Razlikujeva pa se (močno) pri tem, da jaz govorim o pričakovanjih in trenutni ceni blaga (delnici Krke), ti pa govoriš o trendu. Moja teza, ki jo je delno, sicer z zelo nizkim prometom, danes po objavi rezultatov potrdil trg, je bila, da je ta zblodela in nedopustna nedovršenost strategije Krke in (katastrofalni) rezultati za 2016 že terjala svoj davek. Da je temu (delno) tako, ti kažejo tudi vsi svežnji in večje transakcije v zadnjih dveh tednih.
Bo pa Colarič moral močno zavihati rokave. Glede na res šibek outlook za 2017 (kje je tu margin of error, v primeru, če rubelj npr ne bo več v celem letu v povprečju tam, kjer je leto začel), verjetno višanje dividende in (novi) triletni sharebuyback ne bosta dovolj za večji obrat sentimenta. Bo treba pokazati nekaj napredka na stroških in predvsem si naliti čistega vina glede silnega capexa, ki ga gospod veliki manager brez kakršnegakoli razmisleka namenja iz leta v leto, pri čemer delničarji nimamo nič od tega, oz čedalje manj. Podobno tudi kadrovska politika, ki v razmeru upada poslovanja ne more več igrati vloge socialnega korektiva regije.
Verjetno pa ni tako naiven kot šaleški šlagerpjevač, ki je mislil, da je nedotakljiv, potem pa mu je pasiva spolzela iz rok in kar naenkrat se trese za svoj obstoj? Tudi Stada, ki sem ti jo že omenjal, je polna poison pill varovalk, a so vseeno videli, da ko se enkrat sproži plaz, da ga ni več tako enostavno zaustaviti.
Še komentar IC:
In attachment we introduce the 'IC Company Note - Krka Group FY 2016 ':
"Negative Q3 trends continued in the last quarter of the year"
In spite of the fact that sales volume surged by 11% compared to 2015, Krka Group’s financial statements for 2016 show rather flattish revenues in the amount of EUR 1,174.4m (+1%). As we have already seen in the previous quarters of the year, the top line was for the most part pressured by an erosion of average prices of products in most markets as well as by negative movements of certain exchange rates. The figures are in line with the group’s guidance from Nov 2016. East Europe, which traditionally accounts for almost 30% of total sales, posted a 1% growth to the amount of EUR 332.3m, but largely pressured by exchange rate. For instance, Russia (the largest and key individual market) posted rouble denominated sales revenues up 13%. The biggest laggard in the course of the year was West Europe with the decline of EUR 24m or 8% YoY due to severe price erosion, but this was mitigated by an improved performance in other regions.
Each category of operating expenses increased, whereby costs of goods skyrocketed by 12% compared to 2015, resulting in gross margin down by 3.6 p.p. to 57.5%. Besides significant increase of the production volume, costs of goods sold are also influenced by changes in the inventories of work in progress and finished products. Just to note, the second half of the year shows an increase in COGS of as much as 20%, mostly coming from regulatory requirements which resulted in higher costs of semi-products. The good news is that the group is already preparing innovative cost reduction initiatives in order to improve operating efficiency in 2017.
Taking into account all these aggravating factors, EBITDA decreased by 25.6% YoY to EUR 228.2m, pushing margin below 20%. We would like to point out that other operating income went down by EUR 18.7m or 70% YoY in 2016, as in the previous year the group booked EUR 20.0m of reversed provisions for lawsuits. Going down the P&L, we see a negative net financial result of EUR 6.1m, but significantly improved compared to 2015 (EUR -18.7m), mostly due to hedging in periods of increased volatility. On the bottom line Krka Group recorded EUR 108.5m of net profit for the period, a decrease of 31.4% YoY, with ROE falling down to a single-digit figure of 7.6%.
Krka Group announced some initial guidance for 2017 – sales revenues are planned in the amount of roughly EUR 1.22bn, while the bottom line is expected to exceed the 2016 profit. Last but not least, Krka Group has announced roughly EUR 174m of investments in 2017 (up by a third on 2016). In addition to organic growth, they will intensify acquisition and joint venture activities, carefully selected according to several criteria (geography, deal value, profitability). The discrepancy between sales value and volume is likely to be narrowed in 2016.
During the conference call the management stated Krka remains committed to their strategic orientation of increasing dividend payments. Despite the lower bottom line, the company’s balance sheet is strong enough and allows higher pay-outs even if it means slightly increasing leverage. Specific details on the dividend proposal will be published in May in the AGM invitation.
Until we factor in the changes in Krka Group’s business performance, we keep our target price under review.
Strani: 1
